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Abstract The Polar Mesospheric Cloud (PMC) Turbulence experiment performed optical imaging and Rayleigh lidar PMC profiling during a 6‐day flight in July 2018. A mosaic of seven imagers provided sensitivity to spatial scales from ∼20 m to 100 km at a ∼2‐s cadence. Lidar backscatter measurements provided PMC brightness profiles and enabled definition of vertical displacements of larger‐scale gravity waves (GWs) and smaller‐scale instabilities of various types. These measurements captured an interval of strong, widespread Kelvin‐Helmholtz instabilities (KHI) occurring over northeastern Canada on July 12, 2018 during a period of significant GW activity. This paper addresses the evolution of the KHI field and the characteristics and roles of secondary instabilities within the KHI. Results include the imaging of secondary KHI in the middle atmosphere and multiple examples of KHI “tube and knot” (T&K) dynamics where two or more KH billows interact. Such dynamics have been identified clearly only once in the atmosphere previously. Results reveal that KHI T&K arise earlier and evolve more quickly than secondary instabilities of uniform KH billows. A companion paper by Fritts et al. (2022),https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD035834reveals that they also induce significantly larger energy dissipation rates than secondary instabilities of individual KH billows. The expected widespread occurrence of KHI T&K events may have important implications for enhanced turbulence and mixing influencing atmospheric structure and variability. 

Abstract CMB-S4—the next-generation ground-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiment—is set to significantly advance the sensitivity of CMB measurements and enhance our understanding of the origin and evolution of the universe. Among the science cases pursued with CMB-S4, the quest for detecting primordial gravitational waves is a central driver of the experimental design. This work details the development of a forecasting framework that includes a power-spectrum-based semianalytic projection tool, targeted explicitly toward optimizing constraints on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, r , in the presence of Galactic foregrounds and gravitational lensing of the CMB. This framework is unique in its direct use of information from the achieved performance of current Stage 2–3 CMB experiments to robustly forecast the science reach of upcoming CMB-polarization endeavors. The methodology allows for rapid iteration over experimental configurations and offers a flexible way to optimize the design of future experiments, given a desired scientific goal. To form a closed-loop process, we couple this semianalytic tool with map-based validation studies, which allow for the injection of additional complexity and verification of our forecasts with several independent analysis methods. We document multiple rounds of forecasts for CMB-S4 using this process and the resulting establishment of the current reference design of the primordial gravitational-wave component of the Stage-4 experiment, optimized to achieve our science goals of detecting primordial gravitational waves for r > 0.003 at greater than 5 σ , or in the absence of a detection, of reaching an upper limit of r < 0.001 at 95% CL.